2024 MLB Predictions

My annual MLB predictions are back, and after two astounding years of exactly predicting the World Series outcomes Braves over Astros in 2021, and Dodgers over Rays in 2020, I came back down to earth with a very incorrect Brewers/Blue Jays guess in 2022, and another poor prediction in Astros/Padres in 2023. I did get over half the playoff teams correct last year, at least, including the Rangers, who very few were expecting to be competitive.

2023 was the best season for the Twins since at least 2002, winning a playoff series and being the third-to-last AL team standing. They easily won the division after pulling away from Cleveland in the final month, and they did it largely without two of their best players in Buxton and Lewis, and with Correa far from healthy. I did not predict a division title and playoff win in 2023, so I was very pleasantly surprised to get the monkey off the back and end the world’s all-time longest sports playoff losing streak at 18, mercifully.

My 2024 outlook for the team is strong. They relied heavily on the starting rotation last year, and then lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, without really replacing them. If the Twins are going to win 90+ and ride to another division title, I sure hope Chris Paddack is fully back, and their young guys (Varland, Woods Richardson, Festa, etc) are able to give them some good innings. The bullpen, on paper, is thought to be the very best in baseball, but I have my doubts that will all pan out. The team-imposed payroll reduction was quite a slap in the face. They could have spent the same as last year and brought in a #2 starter behind Pablo Lopez—if not Sonny himself, then Blake Snell or a top free agent. Disappointing.

The key to the season—as I’ve said it before, and it remains true in 2024—if Byron Buxton plays, like, even 110 games and is healthy for the playoffs, I’d bet on the Twins to go on a deep playoff run. He hasn’t come close to that in 7 years, though.

I do think the AL Central will be better as a whole this year. I like what the Tigers and Royals did this winter, and expect the Guardians to be decent. I don’t think the Twins will coast to a division title. I think it will be a bit more of a race, but I’m not sure which of those three will give the Twins the most trouble. And for everyone writing off the White Sox entirely, their offense still looks pretty respectable.

My 2024 Predictions

AL East	W	L	GB		NL East	W	L	GB
Orioles	104	58	–		Braves	104	58	–
Blue Jays*	91	71	13		Phillies*	91	71	13
Yankees	87	75	17		Mets	81	81	23
Rays	85	77	19		Marlins	71	91	33
Red Sox	73	89	31		Nationals	60	102	44
AL Central	W	L	GB		NL Central	W	L	GB
Twins	90	72	–		Cubs	84	78	–
Tigers	87	75	3		Reds	83	79	1
Royals	80	82	10		Cardinals	81	81	3
Guardians	78	84	12		Brewers	73	89	11
White Sox	69	93	21		Pirates	69	93	15
AL West	W	L	GB		NL West	W	L	GB
Astros	99	63	–		Dodgers	113	49	–
Mariners*	94	68	5		DBacks*	85	77	28
Rangers*	90	72	9		Padres*	84	78	29
Angels	71	91	28		Giants	83	79	30
Athletics	55	107	34		Rockies	55	107	58

ALCS: Orioles over Astros
NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
World Series: Dodgers over Orioles

AL MVP: Julio Rodriguez, SEA
NL MVP: Freddie Freeman, LAD
AL CY: Pablo Lopez, MIN
NL CY: Zac Gallen, ARI