No matter what happens on or after election night, I am pretty sure the next two months are going to be very ugly. I feel like neither side is going to trust the results and there is going to be chaos trying to sort everything out. The only thing we might all agree on is there’s zero chance of everyone accepting the results and moving on. If Biden wins, Republicans will scream massive Democratic fraud and cheating, of which there will be no real proof. If Trump wins, Democrats will point at the various voter suppression efforts and court cases throwing out votes.
I have already made a short prediction in a private group with several friends, but what the hell, let’s lay it all out here on November 1 so we can check back in a few days and see how accurate I was.
As you may know, I am not much of a political guy; prior to 2016 I could have probably named no more than a half-dozen senators. I would vote for candidates based on whether I thought their names were funny sounding, and frequently write-in my own name. I had no knowledge whatsoever as to what a Democrat or Republican stood for. Though I have made a point to vote in every presidential election of which I’ve been eligible starting in 2000, I seriously doubt I’ve ever voted a straight ticket one way or the other. I would take quizzes to see which candidates I matched up with ideologically the day before voting. So, I went into the 2016 election very much in the dark. But Trump just agitated me so damn much from Day 1. I had never before had strong feelings, good or bad, for any politician, but every time Trump tweeted or spoke my blood pressure rose. Every single situation that presented itself, Trump did the opposite of what I would have done. Every fire that broke out, it seemed rather than try to put it out, he was pouring gasoline onto it. I know many, many friends, family members and co-workers who adore Trump and would literally take a bullet for him, but I just don’t get it. As a result, I simply haven’t been able to look away from politics. And now I am easily 100 times more informed than I was four years ago, which probably still puts me well below the level of you, dear reader.
Anyway, here is what I think will happen.
Trump will declare victory sometime around midnight Tuesday night/Wednesday morning no matter what the vote tallies say. He might be winning, it might be way too close to call, he might be losing, it might be a colossal blue wave. It won’t matter. Trump will declare a “record victory” and that will be that. There will be nothing anyone can do.
I’d like to think that after Tuesday, it will all be over and we can move on with our lives, but this is 2020. It is not going to be that easy for anyone. We all will collectively suffer until 2021. We won’t know for sure who wins for weeks as so many states are super close and many recounts are ongoing. My gut feelings says Biden actually does have a decently commanding lead into Wednesday morning, and he, like Trump, declares victory.
Here is my official prediction for electoral college map. Realistically, there shouldn’t be much there for Trump to try to challenge. He pulls out a few of the tight races in Florida, Ohio and Texas. Specifically, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will be the center of his attention. Those three states are somewhat close races, and if you throw out ALL of the mail-in ballots (even the ones who voted for Trump), all three states would be flipped back to Trump by the slimmest of margins.
Now mind you, I don’t know shit about election law and voter rights and all that. Someone will be quick to point out that Trump or federal courts have no jurisdiction over this or that. Don’t care. Trump and his team will find a way around it. If nothing else mattered the past four years, why would it now? All of the mail-in ballots from those three states will be thrown out by the Supreme Court and Trump will be declared victor days before January 20.
Obviously, this will lead to mass civil unrest and the end of the United States as we know it. Trump militias will be prowling the streets of every city in America, taking down the Democrat protesters. Blood will be shed. It will lead to an attempted mass exodus of the US for Canada, Mexico and many other countries. But, because of the pandemic, no one is being allowed in anywhere. There is growing advocacy for several western states to secede from the union and become their own nation. We all just ride it out and hope things return to sense of normalcy, but every few weeks some new major controversy erupts. In 2024, Trump will find a way to run again, and win again. And then in 2028, 2032, and 2036 he just stays in office before Don Jr takes over.
Hey, I’m a lifelong fan of the Minnesota sports teams and the LA Chargers for a kicker. Things never work out the way I’m cheering. NEVER. I’ve literally never had a team I’ve really invested myself in win a championship in ANYTHING, EVER, at any level from high school to the pros. There have been some presidents I voted for that won, but I was never very invested. If Romney or McCain had beaten Obama, I wouldn’t have lost any sleep over it. So forgive me if I don’t have great confidence in this working out the way I’d prefer.
So, how will I follow the news on election night? I imagine it will involve sitting on the couch with the TV tuned to a network’s coverage with laptop in hand, keeping up with the events with friends on Facebook, and depending on the results, celebratory alcohol, anxious alcohol or sorrow-drowning alcohol. I don’t see a way around that last part.